Climate Projections
The UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) are scientific projections made by the Met Office using a range of tools designed to help decision-makers assess their risk exposure to climate.
The UKCP18 data provides updated observations and climate change projections up to 2100 in the UK and globally.
Appendix A provides further information on the science behind the Climate Projections and detail on the climate parameters (temperature/ precipitation/ wind/ humidity/ cloud cover). It also highlights the range of possibilities provided by the latest UKCP18 from the Met Office.
This page presents some headline figures taken from the Met Office for the year 2021.
This year has been chosen as at the time of writing it was the most recent ‘State of the UK Climate’ report that had been published.
- 2021 was warmer than all but one year between 1884 and 1990.
- UKs ninth warmest summer
- Winter and spring colder than the 1991 – 2020 average
- 3rd warmest autumn
- All the top 10 warmest years for the UK since 1884 have occurred this century
- Air frosts and ground frosts highest on record
- Sunniest April on record
- 2021 was the 5th driest April and 2nd wettest May
- The 21st century so far has been warmer than any period of equivalent length from the last three centuries
Projected Climate
Overall, the West Midlands is experiencing changes to the climate and these are projected to become more significant over time. As our climate warms, it is anticipated that weather events will become more extreme.
For temperature, minimum, maximum and monthly average are all set to increase across both summer and winter. Maximum temperatures could be between 2.9°C
and 7.5°C warmer than the baseline period (1981-2000) by 2099. Average maximum temperatures are taken both spatially and over a specified time period. It is important to note that average maximum temperature does not reflect extreme values (e.g. highest daily temperature). This change gives a potential average maximum temperature of 23.1°C-27.7°C over summer.
However, extreme temperatures are likely to exceed this as experienced when the 2022 heatwave reached 40.3°C in England.
The predicted increase in rainfall ranges from 7% to 24% (winter) by 2099 depending on emissions. Across the average winter months, the projected rainfall is 244mm. A typical ‘wet day’ is a day that has 1mm of rainfall or more. This is countered by much drier summers, 31% less rainfall than the baseline over the summer period. Projections suggest significant increases in hourly rainfall extremes, particularly in the autumn.
Changes to cloud cover and humidity are likely to have less obvious but still key impacts across the UK. Ecosystems are likely to drastically change with increased humidity, and it will also have an influence on the levels of precipitation. Cloud cover also provides a key barrier for sun exposure, and a fall in cloud cover can contribute to lower precipitation levels and in some instances higher temperatures.
Baseline |
Best-Case Scenario (RCP 2.6) |
Worst-Case Scenario (RCP 8.5) |
||
20502099 |
Summer |
Winter |
Summer |
Winter |
Avg. temp. |
15.4°C 1.7°C warmer 2.3°C warmer |
4°C 0.9°C warmer 1.2°C warmer |
15.4°C 2.1°C warmer 6.5°C warmer |
4°C 1.6°C warmer 4°C warmer |
Avg. precipitation |
171mm 17% drier 25% drier |
195mm 4% wetter 7% wetter |
171mm 23% drier 42% drier |
195mm 7% wetter 24% wetter |
4% less cloud cover 10% less cloud cover |
Little change |
4% less cloud cover 21% less cloud cover |
Little change |
|
7% more humid 9% more humid |
8% more humid 8% more humid |
9% more humid 26% more humid |
11% more humid 31% more humid |
Table 1.1: Climate Projections Summary for the West Midlands against baseline period 1981-2000 (see Appendix A for more detail).