Climate Impact Assessment

In July 2022, a Red Extreme heat warning was in place for much of England (including the West Midlands) and Wales. The Met Office noted ‘likely adverse health effects for the public, not just limited to those most vulnerable to extreme heat.’

The result was three new highest daily maximum temperatures in England (40.3°C), Scotland (35.1°C) and Wales (37.1°C). This led to fires, travel disruption, health warnings, water shortages, damage to property and infrastructure and even excess deaths. The increase in severity of the extreme heat events is already clear

in the observed record. The increase in frequency, duration and intensity of these events over recent decades is linked to the observed warming of the planet. As part of the Red Extreme heat warning, key impacts were shared to spread awareness.

These impacts included:

Adverse health effects for those vulnerable to heat (incl. heat exhaustion and other heat related illnesses)
Failure of heat-sensitive equipment
Possible loss of electricity, water supplies and gas
Disruption to travel
Increased congestion
Risk of water safety incidents.

These impacts only relate to extreme heat, but there are a large range of impacts across multiple climate parameters, such as those described in Section 1. The global change in melting ice and sea level rise is going to have a knock-on impact across food security, health, the environment and sustainable development.

The 2022 UK Climate Change Risk Assessment noted that reducing climate impacts requires both emissions reduction (mitigation) and adaptation. It concluded that progress with adaptation policy and implementation is not keeping up with
the rate of increase in climate risk, and
that the risks to all aspects of life in the UK have increased over the last 5 years. This section explores those impacts across
a range of climate parameters detailed
in Section 1. This assessment has been produced for three key focus areas:

People
Infrastructure
Natural environment

The impacts from climate change will affect all parts of the world, which is likely to have knock on impacts for the global economy. This section tailors those impacts for the WMCA across the three focus areas:

Three focus areas

The impacts from climate change will affect all parts of the world, which is likely to have knock on impacts for the global economy. This section tailors those impacts for the WMCA across the three focus areas:

People

The impacts on people will review how different aspects of society may be affected, including the identification of vulnerable groups and inequalities.

Infrastructure

The infrastructure section will look at damage to physical assets from climate change, explicitly across transport, housing, health, education and water and the potential knock-on effects on businesses and the economy.

Natural Environment

The natural environment section reviews how climate change will impact biodiversity, habitats, soil health and the potential knock-on effects to natural capital that society is dependent upon (e.g. agriculture).

There are risks to productivity, supply chains and distribution networks. Financial systems are starting to recognise the importance of climate change and disclosure of risks, but there is still limited action being taken to help address these risks.

By understanding the risks, improving the evidence base and investment into climate adaptation, these impacts can be reduced.

Impact Assessment Process

The climate impact assessment uses a range of sources to help understand how the projected climate parameters in Section 1 will affect the seven constituent local authorities that make up the WMCA. To contribute to the WMCA’s climate risk assessment, a total of 58 datasets have been identified from multiple sources. These datasets cover the categories outlined in Table 2.1 and help inform the impact assessment by allowing measurement of each impact identified.

Social	Infrastructure	Natural Capital
Indices of Deprivation	Public Buildings	Flooding Zones/ Flood Defences
Employment	Transport Infrastructure Assets	Land Designations
Population for Vulnerable Age Groups	Energy Infrastructure Assets	National Forest Inventory
Utility Usage	Education Assets	Climate Change Vulnerability
Housing Stock		Agricultural Land Classification
		Biodiversity and Climate Regulation Classification

Some impacts will have knock-on effects across multiple parts of the region’s infrastructure, some of which are interconnected and could therefore result in cascade failure. Further, how places beyond the West Midlands respond to climate change will also have an impact on how successful the region is in tackling its own challenges; collaboration with others will therefore be essential for delivery of measures.

Datasets

A high level assessment has been completed to highlight how different locations in the WMCA area are vulnerable to different risks. A more granular assessment would be required to understand precisely where these impacts are at street level.

The mapping has relied on being able to access datasets from multiple organisations. These are listed in subsequent tables as ‘quantified data’ and used in the mapping.

A low-risk rating does not indicate an absence of risk – it just highlights that the risk is less significant/ prevalent than risks elsewhere in the area.

There are also impacts that will be felt from climate change where the data does not exist, or was not available for mapping for this project.

These impacts are still important to highlight and have been included as ‘qualitative data’ in this report.

For more detail on methodology please see Appendix A’

Impacts on People

The impacts of climate change on people are far reaching. With the WMCA region being home to just under 3 million people, it is imperative that the places where the most vulnerable people live are considered for adaptation measures. These communities are typically more vulnerable and less able to prepare, respond and recover from shocks to their daily lives, such as extreme weather events. Birmingham was recently ranked 1st, with Coventry ranked 14th, in a study examining the greatest number of priority neighbourhoods for heat adaptation. There is an urgent need to identify at risk areas so that actions can be appropriately identified. To focus efforts and understand these impacts in more detail, the impacts on people have been split into two areas:

Demographics; and
Health & Social Care.

The qualitative data for the climate change impacts on people in the West Midlands is shown in Table 2.2. This includes impacts around water resources, energy demand and disruption to communication and information technology and these should be considered alongside the quantitative assessment. The impacts that could be quantified, and therefore mapped, are broken down in Table 2.3.

Climate Parameter	Impact
Decreased precipitation	Increased water scarcity, disproportionally impacting more deprived areas with greater pressure on health and care services.
Increased temperature	Disruption to accessing and using infrastructure services, affecting public connectivity and resulting in isolated communities Milder minimum temperatures can increase the intensity and impacts of nocturnal urban heat island within the WMCA. High rise buildings and mobile homes are susceptible to overheating as a result of increased air temperature.
Increased temperature/ humidity	Disruption in delivery of public services, such as education. Reduced quality of life and wellbeing, due to overheating and strain on health and social services.
Increased humidity	Reduced indoor air quality, having greater implications for the elderly.
Increased humidity/ precipitation	Increased moisture inside homes can cause damage to health (e.g. damp).
Decrease in cloud cover	Increase in sun exposure.

Table 2.2: Non-measured (qualitative) impacts to people from the changing climate

Measured impacts

Climate Parameter	Impacts
Decreased precipitation	Increased water scarcity causing higher demand and raising water prices, affecting access for lower income households.
Increased average air temperature & humidity	Health impact of heatwaves on people with pre-existing vulnerabilities. (E.g. heat deaths) Increased health inequality due to extreme climate factors e.g., worsened air quality. Excess heat mortality associated with temperatures above an average of 24.5°C or more for five or more days over the summer period.
Increased average air temperature	Changes to the pattern of peak electricity demand increasing energy prices, putting lower income households at financial risk.
Increased precipitation	Displacement of people and communities due to extreme weather events e.g. flooding. Increased financial damages associated with costs from flood damage repair, particularly affecting lower income households. Increased health inequality due to increasingly extreme climate factors e.g., vulnerability to flooding. Extreme events and changing climatic conditions such as flooding affecting health assets, reducing access to the public for receiving adequate health & social care service delivery.
Increased average air temperature, humidity & precipitation	Widening health inequalities (e.g. on more vulnerable people) as a result of greater climate disadvantage due to more extreme weather.
Increased temperature & reduced air quality	Overheating of domestic properties causing health hazards (e.g. heat exhaustion). Widening inequalities (e.g. those that rely on public spaces for outdoor areas) relating to a lack of access to urban green space. Increased urban heat island effect, greater reduction in air quality and decreased quality of life for vulnerable communities.

Table 2.3: Measured impacts from Climate Change on demographics, health & social care

Economic risks and impacts

The impacts of climate change on the population are also likely to impact the local economy, affecting businesses and industry. These could include:

Increases in climate-related health problems affecting productivity.
As our population grows more people will be deemed vulnerable to climate impacts, resulting in a strain on health and social care resources.
Income inequality may grow as access to utilities such as water and energy become more expensive (to cope with damaged infrastructure) which will particularly affect those already on a low-income.

Benefits or adaptation opportunities

There may also be some benefits or opportunities for people associated with climate change impacts and adaptation. These could include:

Higher average temperatures in winter could reduce general population vulnerability to cold- related health implications.
As well as reducing the risks from cold, there could be health benefits from warmer temperatures that would in turn also reduce disease burdens on the health and social care system.
Warmer winters may also cause some financial relief as a result of reduced energy bills.
Adapting buildings and places to support people’s resilience during extreme weather can provide all year round benefits, including better access to green space, improved air quality and physical and mental health.

People: Climate Vulnerability Hotspots

The quantifiable data in Table 2.3 above have been combined with data on where some of the region’s most vulnerable communities live (using the Indices of Multiple Deprivation - IMD). This has produced a map showing climate vulnerability hotspots.

The five very high-risk areas (C2, D2, D3, F5
and G3) are in urban areas (the confluence between Sandwell, Wolverhampton and Walsall, and Central Birmingham) with high levels of deprivation, a high level of flood risk and contain a high relative proportion
of the vulnerable population to the impacts of climate change. However, despite their urban location in Coventry grids K1, K2, K3, L1, L2 and L3 performed well in the assessment, with a relatively lower risk to people from climate change. This is mostly due to a relatively high IMD value, lower average energy usage and a lower number of health assets at risk from flooding.

The 14 grids in the very low risk category (A1, C6, F3, G1, H1, H5, H6, I5, J1, J2, J3, K1, L3 and N2) are all located outside of urban centres with an absence of characteristics such as flood risk and high proportion of vulnerable people.

Suburban grids are mostly at medium risk, with a diverse range of impacts revealed through the assessment (e.g. contrasting flood risk vulnerabilities and differences due to the effects of heatwaves on different areas places and people).

Infrastructure Impacts

Infrastructure delivers services that can help drive economic growth, support jobs, increase people’s safety and improve quality of life. It is an integral part of society, and encapsulates transport, housing, education and health assets, energy systems, access to water, telecoms and information technology.

All infrastructure sectors are connected, meaning that vulnerabilities on one network can cause problems for others, and impact beyond the infrastructure system itself, affecting the economy, health and wellbeing.

The infrastructure sector needs to adapt to deal with the changing climate, both for existing and new assets. Due to the physical nature of assets, it’s the most measurable across the three topics in this study.

To help identify the impacts across key areas of infrastructure, they have been split into 5 areas (housing, public buildings, energy, transport and water).

These impacts are mostly related to physical damage to assets, but the available data was unable to ascertain or identify the vulnerable assets. That can be from overheating, reduced water availability or from issues with the interdependency of assets.

The impacts that could be quantified, and have therefore been mapped, are shown in Table 2.5.

Non-measured (qualitative) infrastructure impacts

Climate Parameter	Impact
Decreased precipitation	Buried infrastructure such as underground cabling damaged by subsidence. Disruption to supply of energy (e.g. Hydroelectric power output disruption in the UK leading to greater pressure on the energy network, due to changing river flows) More frequent power shut offs of energy infrastructure as a required safety response to drier weather and higher temperatures causing sparking or wildfire risk. Reduced water availability for generation plants as a result of climatic changes. Reduced water availability reducing output of thermal power generators.
Decreased precipitation & increased temperature	Greater incidence of extreme weather affecting service delivery and building function.
Decreased & increased temperature	Summer and winter temperature changes potentially reducing heating need but increasing cooling need.
Increased temperature	Cascading failure of the infrastructure network; failure of one system leading to multiple failures in others as a result of more extreme weather, including heatwaves. Data/broadband and other telecom centre failures due to overheating. Failures of infrastructure assets such as energy systems, transport, and ICT. Heatwaves impacting IT and communications services causing freight and travel delays. Increase in costs for maintenance and reconstruction of urban infrastructure associated with extreme weather events weather, including heatwaves.
Increased precipitation & increased temperature	Slope and embankment failure affecting transport networks.
Increased precipitation	Disruption to infrastructure services associated with fluvial flooding and erosion. Bridge collapse causing significant disruption to transport, particularly in rural areas. Failures of water infrastructure assets. Flooding of water treatment facilities leading to reductions in water quality. Risks to buried infrastructure, such as water pipelines, with damage potentially becoming more frequent in future due to flooding and subsidence.

Table 2.4: Non-measured (qualitative) infrastructure impacts from the changing climate

Measured (quantitative) impacts on Infrastructure

Increased precipitation

Damage to domestic properties due to flooding, compounded by increased development on greenfield sites, increasing floodwater runoff. As a result, there will be an increase in costs for maintenance and reconstruction of urban infrastructure associated with extreme weather events.
Potential damage caused by moisture, wind and driving rain.

Greater frequency and extent of flooding as a result of climatic changes.
More frequent and extensive river, surface water and groundwater flooding.
Damage to assets from flooding, including areas of shelter/ refuge and education facilities.
Extreme events and changing climatic conditions such as flooding affecting health assets, reducing ability to serve public needs through health and social care service delivery.

Disruption to power stations due to flooding.
Failures of infrastructure assets such as energy systems and ICT.
Flooding of electricity substations disrupting air travel.

Flooding of transport infrastructure and hubs, resulting in travel and freight delays, accidents and impacts on emergency services.
Greater incidence of extreme weather affecting service delivery, building function, business supply chains and distribution networks.
More frequent flooding and severe erosion of infrastructure.
Potential damage to infrastructure caused by moisture, wind and driving rain.

Measured (quantitative) impacts from Climate Change on Infrastructure

Risks, Impacts and Adaptation

Understanding the potential threat of the impacts to infrastructure is important to provide sufficient adaptation. The trends, risks and impacts extracted from this assessment echo the findings of the Climate Change Committee, indicating that disruption to infrastructure networks from extreme weather can have significant implications not just for economic activity, but societal equity, health and wellbeing more generally. Networks are also vulnerable to increased degradation

and reduced performance over time as a result of long-term changes in climate.

Economic risks and impacts

The impacts of climate change on infrastructure are likely to affect the local economy, its businesses and industry. These could include:

Local energy providers may suffer from infrastructure failure. It has been estimated that the total economic loss resulting from the failure of five electricity substations to be around £27 million per day.
Damage to local transport such as railway lines, bridges, and roads, will cause economic losses to infrastructure providers and may place increased stress on alternative public transport services.
The aviation industry may be affected by weather-related infrastructure failure.
Failure of infrastructure may cause disruption to supply chains, affecting business costs directly as well as indirectly such as through lost production time.
Infrastructure belonging to local businesses may be vulnerable to increased flood risk, as well as other extreme weather events. Present day expected annual damages to non-residential properties across the UK average around £670 million.
Businesses may be affected by water scarcity. It is estimated that 1 billion litres of water are used by businesses in England each day for cooling and heating, washing products, dissolving chemicals, suppressing dust, and as a direct input to products.
Risks to finance, investment and insurance either from physical risks (e.g. weather-related insurance claims) or from transition risks (as the economy shifts towards a greener economy).

Adaptation opportunities

There may be some infrastructure opportunities associated with adaptation to climate change impacts. These could include:

A demand for innovation to develop more climate resilient infrastructure, creating a local economic opportunity for infrastructure providers.
Retrofitted homes and buildings will create a cost benefit over time as improved insulation may reduce energy demand, causing lower utility bills for consumers and lower carbon emissions.
Creating climate resilient infrastructure could help to reduce the local technology gap by upgrading IT to a unified standard. For example using common formalised standards of resilience across different infrastructure sectors including the energy sector will help to build systemic resilience across the whole infrastructure system.
Nature based solutions, or green infrastructure, provides benefits for people, the environment and the economy

Infrastructure: Climate Vulnerability Hotspots

Figure 2 shows the outputs of the infrastructure impact assessment and disparities in the distribution of impacts, based on the quantifiable measures identified in Table 2.5. These impacts can be summarised as follows :

There are 7 very high-risk areas (D2, E2, E3, F4, F6, G3 and M2) and 9 high risk areas (C2, C4, C5, D3, F5, G2, H2, I3 and I4) which are areas with high densities of infrastructure vulnerable to flooding, ranging from transport assets to energy infrastructure.
In contrast, the 12 grids in the very low-risk category (A1, C6, E5, F1, H1, H6, I5, J1, J3, K1, L3 and N2) contain similar characteristics of low overall flood risk in areas that may be combined with either a lack of transport, energy, health and public infrastructure. The locations of these very low risk areas are all on the outskirts of the WMCA, in primarily rural areas.

Natural Environment Impacts

Climate change has the potential to have significant impacts on our natural environment. England is one of the most nature-depleted countries in the world due to its long history of industrialisation and land use changes over millennia. Green infrastructure is integral to help combat the impacts of climate change, whether it’s reducing the urban heat island effect, improving air quality, improving soil and water quality, providing carbon storage, acting as flood management or for improved well-being. The WMCA contains a number of statutorily protected ecological sites such as Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSIs), Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) and Local/National nature reserves (LNRs). These are considered to be of at least national, and in some instances international, importance. Further to this (and not always recognised by statutory designations) are sites and habitats of regional and local importance, as well as areas that may be important or critical for populations of fauna and flora. Protecting these natural assets from the impacts of climate change is vital to avoid the decline and/or alteration of these sites, and where possible, support the recovery of nature.

To understand the impacts to the natural environment in more detail, the impacts from climate change have been split into two areas. The qualitative assessment of impacts, that was not available for mapping, is included in Table 2.6. These impacts are around water resources, agricultural land, and destruction to habitats from wildfires. The impacts on the natural environment from climate change are likely to be wide-ranging, so this section does not cover some of the key interdependencies between ecosystems, for example soil moisture and disruption to ecosystems from seasonal changes. The quantitative data, which was of sufficient quality for mapping, is included in Table 2.7.

Climate Parameter	Impact
Decreased precipitation	Productivity losses from reduced soil health and water degradation. Natural habitats will be impacted on wetlands where seasonal drying will become much more frequent and extensive, impacting surface water and groundwater fed ecosystems.
Decreased precipitation & increased temperature	Wildfires causing destruction to habitats and drying out of water dependent habitats and species.
Increased temperature	Decrease in snow melt water availability for irrigation. Increase in pests, pathogens and invasive species.
Increased precipitation	Riverbank erosion from rising sea/river levels. Disruption of agricultural practices and business due to increased groundwater salinity from saltwater intrusion and eutrophication.

Table 2.6: Non-measured (qualitative) Natural Environment impacts from the changing climate

Measured (quantitative) impacts on Natural Assets

Climate Parameter

Increased temperature

Risks to natural carbon stores, freshwater species, habitats and sequestration, causing destruction and release of locked-in carbon.
Extreme events and changing climatic conditions damaging biodiversity and resulting in further water scarcity, wildfire and flooding.
Biodiversity loss in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems.
In areas which are predominantly urban, green infrastructure (e.g. parks) is vital for both providing habitat corridors for nature and barriers to land-use change - the damage to these through the impacts of climate change can result in habitat fragmentation (resulting in knock on impacts to flora and fauna), and increase the urban heat island effect.
Changing climatic conditions, including seasonal aridity and wetness causing an impact on soil health.
More frequent downstream estuarine flooding, leading to changes in salinity and impacts on species migration within the West Midlands.
Negative impacts on cultural heritage due to changes in temperature, groundwater and landscape change (e.g. parks, gardens and designed landscapes).

Increased precipitation

Biodiversity loss in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems.
Risks to soil health from increased flooding.
More frequent downstream estuarine flooding, leading to changes in salinity and impacts on species migration within the West Midlands.
More frequent and extensive river, surface water and groundwater flooding leading to a greater water pollution risks
Changing climatic conditions, including seasonal aridity and wetness.
More frequent downstream estuarine flooding, leading to changes in salinity and impacts on species migration within the West Midlands.
Negative impacts on cultural heritage due to changes in precipitation, groundwater and landscape change (e.g. parks, gardens and designed landscapes).

Decreased precipitation

Extreme events and changing climatic conditions damaging biodiversity and resulting in further water scarcity, wildfire and flooding.
Biodiversity loss in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems.
Higher water temperatures and scarcity of water due to lower precipitation
Increased food insecurity due to agricultural failure associated with high temperatures and drought.

Increased humidity

Biodiversity loss in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems.

Table 2.7: Measured (quantitative) impacts from Climate Change on Natural Assets

Risks, Impacts and Adaptation

The trends extracted from this assessment align with the conclusions of the Climate Change Committee, suggesting there is a clear rationale for ensuring action is taken now to build the resilience of the natural environment, so it is more able to accommodate change in the future.

Economic risks and impacts

The impacts of climate change on the natural environment are likely to knock on to the local economy, affecting businesses and industry. These could include:

The agricultural sector will likely see changes in water availability for crops but also increased flooding and possible loss of crop or reduced productivity due to shorter seasons. This, alongside changing average temperatures, could affect the success of certain crops, and adaptation to new farming methods may be costly. Farmers may also see economic losses as a result of higher temperatures causing crop failure.
Changes to soil conditions are likely due to heavier rainfall events. The current rate of erosion is estimated at 2.9Mt per year in England and Wales with losses in productivity estimated at £40m per year.
The growth of invasive non-native species (INNS) as a result of changing weather patterns has been estimated to cost the UK economy £1.7 billion a year.

Adaptation opportunities

There may also be some natural environment opportunities associated with climate change impacts and adaptation. These could include:

Changes to the local climate may provide opportunities for opportunistic species (species that are not necessarily compatible with certain habitat types) to become established and thrive.
Whilst there is likely to be impact on traditional crops, warmer average temperatures will create ideal growing conditions for certain crop species that are currently primarily imported, increasing local species biodiversity. This may also have secondary economic benefits for the local agriculture and farming sector.
Nature based solutions provide many opportunities to both tackle climate change, but also support nature recovery and provide people with physical and mental health.

Natural Environment: Climate Vulnerability Hotspots

There is a disparity in the distribution of climate change impacts on the natural environment across the
WMCA area and highlights disparity in the distribution of impacts across the WMCA. These impacts can be summarised as follows:

There are 4 very high-risk areas (B4, C2, D2 and M2). These habitats are highly vulnerable to climate change, affecting urban green infrastructure, susceptibility to the impacts of climate change on food security, with a high risk to soil health.

The 13 grids in the low-risk category
(A1, C6, E5, F1, F3, F6, G1, H1, J3, K1, L2,
L3 and N2) highlight two main groups. From a people perspective the group of grids which are primarily in urban areas are affected by the potential impacts of food insecurity and the equivalent rising prices. Those in suburban areas contain habitats that may be vulnerable to climate change, as outlined in Table 2.7.
Although there are few grids at very high risk , there are 14 grids which show there is a high-risk to the natural environment from climate change. These are in four identifiable locations: the interface between Dudley, Sandwell, Wolverhampton and Walsall, the M6 corridor in East Birmingham, the River Blythe catchment in Solihull and Northeast Coventry.

A Summary of Climate Change Impacts in the West Midlands Combined Authority Area