June Signals: What’s Shaping the West Midlands

Local Authorities Key to Solving UK Productivity Crisis, Report Says

A Productivity Institute report argues local authorities play a central but underused role in boosting UK productivity, shaping growth through housing, skills and public services. However, fragmented funding, limited capacity and short-term policymaking have constrained impact. It calls for long-term reform focused on setting standards for data and metadata; a focus on preventative services, investment into digital and innovation powers; enabling councils to shift from crisis management to continuous improvement and deliver stronger inclusive growth and public value for local areas.

AI ‘Productivity Boom’ Claims Questioned by Think Tank

Policymakers are being urged to scrutinise claims that AI will drive major public sector productivity gains, with evidence often weak or unreliable. A briefing published by the Ada Lovelace Institute finds studies focus narrowly on time or cost savings while overlooking service quality, equity and long‑term value. It warns that optimistic estimates are already shaping multi‑billion‑pound decisions, calling for stronger evidence standards before committing to large-scale AI investment.

‘Britain Rewards Wealth Over Work’, New Economic Report Warns

The An Honest Day report published by the Labour Growth Group argues the UK economy increasingly rewards asset ownership and market position over productive work, creating an “extraction economy.” It says shortages in land, housing, energy and capital generate rents captured by firms and asset holders; reinforced by state policies. The authors call for a shift to a more capable state that boosts supply, reshapes markets, and prioritises investment, productivity and fair rewards for work over rent‑seeking.

Planning Reform Needed to Close ‘Density Gap’ in UK Cities, Report Finds

A report by Centre for Cities finds UK cities face a “density gap” equivalent to 2.3 million homes, contributing to weaker economic performance, particularly in large cities outside London. Low‑density post‑war neighbourhoods near city centres are identified as a key constraint. The report calls for spatial, rules‑based planning reform, targeted densification of urban cores and investment in regeneration to unlock housing supply and productivity growth. The West Midlands is referenced as Birmingham is highlighted among major cities with significant density shortfalls, illustrating regional economic implications of under‑dense urban cores.

New Guidance for Regional 10‑Year Growth Plans

New government guidance, closely aligned to the WMCA’s Plan for Growth, sets out guidance for the rest of England’s mayors to develop Local Growth Plans as 10‑year strategies to drive regional productivity and economic growth. Owned by mayoral strategic authorities, the plans will align devolved powers and funding with local priorities, identify sector strengths, and set “shared priorities” with central government. Ministers say the approach will strengthen place‑based policymaking, improve accountability, and embed collaboration between national and regional government.

‘Work Isn’t Working’: IPPR Warns In‑Work Poverty Undermining Living Standards

An IPPR report finds most children in poverty now live in working households, with low pay, insecure work and childcare barriers limiting progression. It highlights rising in‑work poverty and calls for reforms to childcare support, skills, flexible jobs and employment services to boost earnings. The West Midlands is cited as having among the highest in‑work child poverty rates, reflecting regional disparities linked to labour markets, family composition and job quality, underscoring the need for targeted local policy responses.

Class Background Still Shapes ‘Good Life’, Sutton Trust Finds

A Sutton Trust report finds a clear “happiness gap” in the UK, with wellbeing strongly linked to social class and mobility. Those from affluent backgrounds enjoy the highest life satisfaction, while upward mobility improves wellbeing but rarely closes the gap entirely. Education, especially degrees, and community belonging boost happiness, but opportunities remain uneven, meaning background continues to shape life chances and long‑term wellbeing.

IFS Review Urges Shift from Redistribution to Tackling Root Causes of Inequality

A six‑year IFS review finds UK inequalities are wide‑ranging and interconnected across income, health, education and geography, with disadvantages reinforcing each other over the life course. It argues policy should move beyond redistribution to address structural drivers such as skills, labour markets and regional disparities, while balancing trade‑offs between fairness and growth. The report highlights the need for coordinated, long‑term action to break persistent cycles of inequality.

Report Urges West Midlands Leaders to Partner to Unlock £100bn Investment

A new report by AchieveGood and the Impact Economy - funded by The Rigby Foundation - calls on West Midlands leaders, including the WMCA, to deepen collaboration with philanthropists and social investors to unlock over £100bn in “impact economy” investment. It argues stronger place-based partnerships with philanthropy, social investors, purpose-driven business, and socially responsible institutional investors could tackle regional priorities such as housing, skills and inequality, shifting from short-term grants to long-term outcomes. The West Midlands is highlighted as a key example due to its devolved powers and capacity to convene cross-sector investment at scale; with the potential for design-in social impact to maximise inclusive growth.

UK University Fundraising Hits £1.55bn Despite Financial Pressures

A Council for Advancement and Support of Education (CASE) report reveals UK and Ireland universities secured £1.55bn in philanthropic funding in 2024–25, maintaining growth despite wider sector strain and funding pressures. Donations remain increasingly concentrated, with major gifts and trusts dominating while alumni participation continues to decline, raising sustainability concerns. Although long‑term growth exceeds 30% since 2020–21, uneven performance and capacity pressures highlight a fragile funding model reliant on large donors and continued investment in fundraising capability.

Spinout Mobility Poses Challenge for Regional Growth and Retention

A review finds university spinouts show strong early attachment to their home regions but often relocate later to access finance, skills and markets, creating uneven regional outcomes. Evidence highlights a gap between regions that retain firms and those that attract them, with the West Midlands identified as performing weakly on both. The report calls for policy to shift from start-up creation towards strengthening regional ecosystems, scale-up support and investment to retain and grow high-value firms locally.

Digital Boost for SMEs ‘Uneven’, with Rural Firms Missing Out, Study Finds

An Enterprise Research Centre study finds digitalisation improved SME survival during the pandemic, but only in urban areas, where its impact matched government subsidies. In rural areas, digital adoption had little effect on survival, with public support proving more important. The findings highlight persistent spatial inequalities and suggest digital policies must be tailored, as benefits are not evenly shared across locations or business environments.

Resilient Growth Amid Rising Pressures

Latest intel from the Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) reveals the UK economy entered 2026 with modest growth and resilience despite global uncertainty, with GDP rising steadily. However, conflict in the Middle East and higher energy costs are expected to slow growth, push inflation above 4%, and delay rate cuts. Business sentiment—particularly in the West Midlands—remains weak, with falling activity, reduced investment, and rising insolvencies. Labour markets are softening, real incomes are under pressure, and sectors face diverging impacts amid ongoing cost and supply challenges. Read the full analysis in the annex.

NEET Rise Signals Deep Structural Challenges in Youth Labour Market

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) finds the UK’s rising NEET rate—up to 12.8% by late 2025—is driven by declining youth employment and stagnant education participation, not just a cyclical downturn. Youth payroll employment fell sharply while benefit claims rose, with regional declines widespread. The report highlights structural pressures facing young people and warns no single policy driver explains the trend, posing risks for long‑term labour market participation and regional growth.

Rising Youth Inactivity Drives UK’s ‘NEET Crisis’, Report Warns

A Resolution Foundation report finds the UK’s growing number of young people not in education, employment or training reflects both a weakening labour market and rising economic inactivity linked to poor health. The NEET rate rose from 13% in 2019 to 15% in 2025, remaining high internationally. The study highlights weaker vocational pathways and benefit systems as key factors, calling for coordinated reforms across health, education and welfare.

Early Joblessness Leaves Lifelong ‘Scars’, UCL Study Finds

A University College London (UCL) study finds being out of work, education or training in early adulthood has lasting impacts into midlife, with longer periods leading to worse outcomes. Those persistently NEET were far more likely to be unemployed, financially insecure, and in poor physical and mental health at age 51. The research highlights a strong “dose‑response” effect, showing even shorter periods outside work or education can damage long-term prospects.

Barriers Blocking Young People from Work Need System Reform, says NEF

A New Economics Foundation report found that young people face structural barriers to employment, including unaffordable training costs and a lack of entry‑level experience opportunities, limiting access to growing sectors such as green jobs. It argues current skills and employment systems fail to convert aspirations into work and calls for coordinated policy reform to address financial constraints, improve pathways into jobs, and ensure the transition to net zero delivers inclusive labour market opportunities.

Green Skills Gap Risks Holding Back UK Growth and Youth Employment

A Green Alliance report warns the UK risks missing major economic gains from the green transition due to skills shortages and weak pathways for young people. Despite strong demand for green skills and rising job potential, barriers in education, careers guidance and employer engagement limit access. It calls for coordinated policy reform, expanded apprenticeships and earlier careers support to align youth employment with fast‑growing green sectors and future labour market needs.

Minimum Wage Hits Harder in Struggling UK Cities, Report Warns

A Centre for Cities report finds the UK’s rising National Living Wage has uneven impacts, hitting lower‑productivity cities hardest. In some places it exceeds 80% of median pay, increasing the share of workers near the minimum wage and compressing local wage distributions, while richer cities absorb rises more easily. With most cities now above the two‑thirds benchmark, the report urges a cautious, place‑based approach to future increases.

Uneven Working Lives Driving Pension Inequality, IFS Warns

New IFS analysis finds pension outcomes are strongly shaped by employment histories, with non‑employment, part‑time work and self‑employment leading to significantly lower retirement savings. Women, disabled people and disadvantaged groups are most affected, reflecting caring roles and weaker labour market attachment. While automatic enrolment has improved participation, it cannot offset structural inequalities, leaving persistent gaps in retirement income and financial security over the life course.

Majority of Workers ‘Not Saving Enough’ for Retirement, Study Finds

A Living Wage Foundation report finds most UK workers are failing to save enough into workplace pensions, with 68% below a “Living Pension” benchmark and a third expecting to work beyond retirement age. Lower‑paid, renting and disabled workers are least prepared. Despite this, strong employer contributions are highly valued and linked to better job satisfaction and retention, suggesting improved pension provision could boost both financial security and workforce stability.

Child Inactivity Crisis Threatens Health, Inequality and Future Productivity

A Centre for Social Justice report warns England faces a growing “inactivity crisis” among under‑11s, with over half of primary pupils failing to meet activity guidelines and rising screen time driving declines in physical, mental and social development. Inequalities are stark, with disadvantaged children least active and most affected. The report calls for a national School Activity Standard, stronger targets and expanded local provision to embed daily physical activity and prevent long-term health and economic costs.

Rising Activity Masks Deepening Health Inequality Divide

Sport England reports growing participation, with over 30 million adults meeting activity guidelines, but warns benefits are uneven. Lower-income groups, disabled people, some ethnic minorities and older adults remain significantly less active, with gaps widening between affluent and deprived areas. The findings highlight persistent structural barriers and underscore the need for targeted, place‑based interventions to ensure inclusive health and wellbeing outcomes across communities.

School Nursery Expansion Failing to Reach Disadvantaged Children, Report Warns

A Social Market Foundation report finds England’s school‑based nursery rollout risks missing disadvantaged families, with new provision less likely to serve poorer pupils than existing settings. Despite strong potential to improve early years outcomes, expansion has been poorly targeted and constrained by cost, space and low school participation. The report urges policymakers to prioritise disadvantaged areas and strengthen delivery to ensure the programme reduces, rather than widens, inequality in access to high‑quality early education.

UK Health Decline Marks “Watershed Moment” as Healthy Life Expectancy Falls

A Health Foundation analysis finds UK healthy life expectancy has dropped by over two years since 2012–14 to around 60–61 years, with most people now spending longer in ill health. The decline—seen across most areas—has widened inequalities to around a 20‑year gap between rich and poor and left most places below pension age. The UK now ranks near the bottom among peers, prompting calls for stronger cross‑government action on prevention and social determinants of health.

Co‑operative Care Model Offers “Fairer, Better Quality” Alternative but Remains Small‑Scale

A new report by the Centre for Care and Centre for Adult Social Care Research (CARE) finds social care co‑operatives deliver more person‑centred care, better workforce conditions and stronger community value through local reinvestment and democratic ownership. However, with only around 25 providers, they remain a small part of the market. The study highlights commissioning barriers and uneven availability, arguing targeted policy support is needed to scale the model and expand its role in tackling pressures across the UK care system.

Working While Sick ‘Not Always Harmful’, Study Finds in Rethink of Presenteeism

A major review finds presenteeism—working while unwell—is widespread and complex, challenging the view it is always harmful. It identifies “maladaptive” forms driven by job pressure and insecurity that reduce productivity and harm health, alongside “adaptive” forms linked to personal motivation or therapeutic benefits. The report urges a system-wide approach, highlighting organisational culture, job design and mental health as key drivers, and calls for targeted interventions to balance productivity with worker wellbeing.

Affordable Housing Scheme Delivers Major Gains for Young Workers

An independent evaluation finds St Basils’ “Live and Work” model generates nearly £8 in social and economic value for every £1 invested, supporting young people into stable housing, employment and independence. Over a decade, it has helped hundreds sustain work, improve wellbeing and avoid homelessness. The report highlights affordable, employment-linked housing as a scalable solution to rising rents and youth housing insecurity.

‘Emergency Brake’ Urged as Report Warns of Soaring UK Rents

A New Economics Foundation report finds England’s private rents are unaffordable, with low‑income tenants spending nearly half their income on housing. It argues recent reforms improve security but fail to curb rising costs, driven by decades of deregulation and landlord expansion. The report calls for an immediate cap on rent increases and a phased return to a “fair rents” system, alongside longer‑term investment in social housing to restore affordability.

Rent Crisis Deepens as Ministers Urged to Cap Increases in Private Sector

An IPPR report finds 2.4 million UK private renters face unaffordable housing, with costs set to worsen (no regional breakdown). It argues supply reforms alone will not ease pressures quickly and calls for rent stabilisation, linking increases to wages or inflation to protect households. The report highlights structural market imbalances and growing inequality, recommending stronger regulation, expanded social housing and benefit reforms to prevent further economic strain and safeguard living standards.

Tax Reform Could Unlock Rent Controls to Tackle UK Housing Affordability

A Joseph Rowntree Foundation report argues rent controls could cut costs without shrinking supply if paired with tax reform. Capping rent rises and adjusting landlord taxation could save renters around £1,200 annually while maintaining sector stability. The study finds many landlords earn above-normal returns, enabling reform without large-scale market exits, and suggests stronger short‑term action is needed as supply-led solutions alone will not ease affordability pressures this decade.

RIBA Urges ‘City Architects’ Rollout to Boost Housing Quality and Delivery

The Royal Institute of British Architects (RIBA) is calling for new “city architect” roles within combined authorities to improve design quality and unlock housing delivery, warning current policy risks prioritising quantity over place-making. A proposed three‑year pilot suggests each role could generate significant economic value and additional homes by embedding design expertise in planning.

Community-Led Regeneration Key to High Street Renewal, Report Finds

A report by think tank Power to Change argues UK high street decline reflects deeper governance, ownership and capacity issues rather than retail alone, calling for a shift to “civic high streets” shaped by communities. Drawing on pilots in England, it highlights barriers including fragmented ownership, weak data and short‑term funding, and urges stronger community control, long-term stewardship and policy reform to enable sustainable, mixed-use regeneration.

Government and Rail Industry Say ‘Enough’ to Sexual Harassment

Sexual harassment on public transport will be tackled as part of a new campaign to drive up reporting of harassment on trains and support victims. The flagship ‘Enough’ campaign challenges behaviours such as staring, intrusive questions and unwelcome comments, and backs passengers to report incidents to the British Transport Police (BTP), sending a clear message that sexual harassment on trains and at stations will not be tolerated. This supports the flagship, award winning work WMCA already undertake across the transport network to tackle violence against women and girls.

Passengers One Step Closer to Booking Taxi and Bus-Style Self-Driving Vehicles

Passengers could book taxi and bus-style self-driving vehicles later this year, as applications opened in May for operators to run cars across Great Britain. The pilot scheme will enable firms – including British self-driving technology company Wayve – to bring cutting-edge technology to British roads, creating thousands of jobs and unlocking billions for the economy by 2035.

New Mass Transit Taskforce to Reshape the Future of Transport in Towns and Cities

New tram, light rail and bus networks in towns and cities have taken a step forward, as the government launches the new Mass Transit Taskforce. The group, which includes leading experts from the world of transport, industry, finance and academia, will identify the biggest hurdles facing the introduction of mass transit systems across the UK and how to overcome them. The WMCA has a number of mass transit schemes in planning or delivery including the Wednesbury to Brierley Hill metro (tram) extension, as well as cross-city bus schemes, and Sprint (mass rapid transit bus systems), Coventry Very Light Rail and plans to support the Sports Quarters opening with potential tram extensions.

Full Steam Ahead for Great British Railways as First Branded Train Unveiled

A historic moment for Britain’s railway was marked in May, as the first Great British Railways (GBR) branded train was unveiled in Brighton. Whether it’s building sandcastles, fish and chips on the pier or a staycation, rail travellers to the south and southeast can catch a glimpse of the striking new red, white and blue livery, now operating on the tracks. West Midlands Trains (London Northwestern Railways and West Midlands Railways) moved to public ownership in February 2026.

Cost of Living Boost with Free Bus Travel for Children and Targeted Food Tariff Cuts

Chancellor has announced ‘Great British Summer Savings’ - a UK wide scheme to help families enjoy this summer. Families travelling this summer will benefit from free bus travel for children as the Chancellor ramps up efforts to help with the cost of living. The Chancellor is committing more than £100 million to fund the free fares scheme and also continuing to support bus services with the announcement of UK wide scheme to help families enjoy this summer called the ‘Great British Summer Savings’. Every child aged five to 15 in England will travel free on participating local buses throughout August – with unlimited journeys, no registration required, and at no cost to families.

Transport Artificial Intelligence Action Plan – 12 Months Later

When the Department for Transport (DfT) announced its Transport Artificial Intelligence (AI) Action Plan in June 2025, the claims were bold. The plan was to constitute “a step-change for AI in our transport system, recognising its power to increase resilience, productivity and turbo-charge innovation across the private and public sectors.”

Among its stated objectives were the promotion of responsible adoption of AI, economic benefits allied to reductions in environmental impact, consolidating the UK’s position at the forefront of the AI industry, and for the DfT to embrace and adopt AI in its service delivery.

One year on, progress is underway, but delivery remains at an early, exploratory stage with visible momentum in some areas—especially automated vehicles—while wider system transformation is still developing. The West Midlands is already a national testbed for connected and autonomous mobility (CAM), closely linked to JLT, universities and innovation clusters.

Bus Mileage Recovery Creates Postcode Lottery as Some Regions Surge While Others Fall Further Behind

Bus services across Great Britain are recovering unevenly, creating a “postcode lottery” in service provision. Despite years of funding, overall services remain below pre-pandemic levels in many areas. This strengthens the case for franchising and local control.

Trust in UK Politics at Crisis Point as Report Urges Radical Lawmaking Reform

An IPPR report warns declining trust in UK politics—driven by weak accountability, limited scrutiny and low public influence—requires systemic reform. It proposes stronger MP accountability, curbs on lobbying and second jobs, enhanced parliamentary scrutiny, and greater citizen participation through consultations, petitions and assemblies. The analysis argues that rebuilding democratic legitimacy and improving policy outcomes depends on making lawmaking more transparent, representative and participatory.

AI ‘Hallucinations’ Pose Growing Risk to UK Election Integrity

A Demos report finds text-based AI tools frequently generate inaccurate election information, with over a third of tested responses containing errors, risking voter misinformation and undermining trust. It highlights regulatory gaps, inconsistent safeguards, and rising reliance on AI for political information. The report urges UK government action ahead of 2029, including updating election law, mandating AI safeguards, and improving transparency to protect democratic integrity.

AI Uptake Growing in Local Government but Barriers Persist, Study Finds

An report by the Local Policy Innovation Partnership (LPIP) Hub, part of the University of Birmingham, finds AI adoption across UK councils is increasing but remains uneven and relatively early-stage. Use is strongest in administrative tools and chatbots, delivering efficiency and service gains, though evidence is mixed. Key barriers include capability gaps, governance challenges and limited data, with stronger national support needed to scale adoption responsibly.

Councils Urged to Strengthen Investor Offer to Drive Local Growth

The Local Government Association has issued new guidance to help councils attract private investment and boost inclusive local growth. It urges authorities to adopt a “single front door” for investors, improve infrastructure and planning certainty, and work with business to de‑risk projects. The framework emphasises aligning public value with private capital and supporting regeneration, highlighting councils’ central role in unlocking growth amid constrained public funding.

Compulsory Voting Could Tackle UK’s “Unrepresentative Electorate,” Report Argues

A new report argues Britain’s low and unequal voter turnout is distorting democracy, with participation skewed towards older and wealthier groups. It claims this creates biased policy incentives, contributing to inequality and weak growth. The report advocates Australian-style compulsory voting with modest fines, suggesting it would boost turnout, broaden representation and rebalance policymaking, though wider evidence notes potential trade-offs including higher invalid ballots and uncertain effects on engagement.

Income Tax Devolution Could Mark “Step Change” for English Regions, Analysts Say

A Municipal Journal (MJ) analysis argues assigning a share of income tax to English regions could strengthen devolution by aligning local incentives with economic growth and enabling long‑term, place‑based policymaking. It suggests such fiscal powers would deepen accountability and reduce reliance on central funding, but warns impacts depend on wider reforms, with international evidence indicating tax-sharing works best as part of a broader, coherent system of fiscal devolution.

Air Pollution in Pregnancy Linked to Slower Early Childhood Development

A King’s College London study reports that babies exposed to higher air pollution in the womb show poorer language and motor development at 18 months, with strongest effects from first‑trimester exposure. The study also finds significantly greater impacts for premature infants. Based on London data, the findings highlight early‑years health risks linked to air quality, reinforcing the policy importance of pollution reduction and maternal health interventions.

Climate Tipping Points Pose Escalating Risks to UK Economy and Infrastructure

A Parliamentary briefing warns that as global warming nears 1.5°C, climate “tipping points” could trigger abrupt, irreversible changes such as disrupted weather, rising sea levels and ecosystem collapse. These shifts may intensify UK risks including flooding, extreme weather and economic disruption, with some impacts unfolding over decades. While thresholds remain uncertain, the briefing stresses urgent mitigation and adaptation to manage systemic risks to infrastructure, services and long‑term growth.

Climate Crisis Puts UK’s Way of Life at Risk Without Urgent Action

The Climate Change Committee warns rising heat, flooding and drought threaten homes, infrastructure and economic stability, with 92% of properties at risk of overheating by 2050 and major water shortfalls projected. It calls for around £11bn annual investment in cooling, flood defences and water resilience, stressing that inaction could cost up to 5% of GDP. The report urges faster, place‑based adaptation to safeguard communities, services and long‑term growth.

Climate Adaptation Investment Delivers Strong Economic Returns, LSE Report Finds

A 2026 report by the Grantham Research Institute at the London School of Economics argues climate change poses rising macroeconomic and fiscal risks, potentially reducing global GDP per capita by up to 15% by 2050 without action. It finds adaptation investment delivers strong returns – typically around 4:1 benefit-cost ratios – supporting growth, fiscal stability and resilience. The report calls on finance ministries to integrate climate risks into economic planning and scale early, strategic investment in resilience.

WMCA Economic Dashboard

The latest dashboard prepared by the EIU shows the number of job-seeking benefit claimants rose slightly in March in both Youth and Overall categories continuing their long-term trajectories. The number of payrolled employees dipped marginally in April in a change to relative stability in this figure recently. Find these figures and more in the annex.

Property Prices Rise Strongly Across the WMCA Area

Data available on the WISE Data Profiler shows median house prices rising across the WMCA area between 2024 and 2025. Median house prices rose most quickly in Walsall (7.7%) and most slowly in Solihull (3.1%). This followed a year of much slower growth between 2023 and 2024, which even saw median house prices falling in one local authority area (Solihull). (Percentage change in house prices 2024-2025: Birmingham 4.4%, Coventry 3.6%, Dudley 7.1%, Sandwell 5.9%, Solihull 3.1%, Walsall 7.7%, Wolverhampton 7.3%.)