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Delivery scenarios


Sector delivery levels for each goal are mainly set at ‘Medium’ or ‘Low’ but are still beyond the business as usual delivery pace.

Achieve 2026 goal - No

Achieve 2041 goal - No


A much more rapid and aggressive delivery pace across sectors, with most set at a “High”. Energy efficiency and fuel switching for industry is medium as the majority of technologies required are at an early stage of development. Due to its much smaller scale, solar PV in industrial buildings has been set at a very high level. This is the reference scenario for the plan – it is hugely ambitious.

Achieve 2026 goal - No

Achieve 2041 goal - Yes


This scenario was developed to illustrate what would be required to meet the 2026 carbon budget identified by Tyndall. It is at the limit or beyond what it is technically possible, even ignoring legislative competence and finance restrictions. It would require large behaviour change from people and could create unintended consequences. It has not been used, but can be explored by those seeking to understand what is required.

Achieve 2026 goal - Yes

Achieve 2041 goal - Yes